January 4, 2024
Dear Friends,
This week, we published a new Washington Post-University of Maryland poll looking at American public opinion regarding the January 6th, 2021 attack on the Capitol.
Many of the results have been picked up by other media outlets as well and will also be featured in several other major media forums in the coming days. The poll contains several important insights about the challenges American democracy will face during the 2024 presidential election.
January 6th is more divisive for Republicans than Democrats…
In the initial Washington Post analysis which published on Tuesday, I drew readers attention to the ways in which the results differ by party.
Republican views are more fractured than those of Democrats, who remain largely in agreement that the riot was a violent threat to democracy for which Trump bears responsibility. “In the current context of hyper-partisanship, there seem to be some divisions among Republicans,” Hanmer said. Independents, according to the poll, mostly side with Democrats.
…but there are major divides among Democrats based on age.
In an additional analysis published by the UMD College of Behavioral and Social Sciences, I also elaborated on the key differences among respondents of different ages, particularly among Democrats.
“Differences between the youngest and oldest age groups stood out in this survey. For example, 25% of 18-to-29-year-olds said Trump bears a great deal of responsibility for the January 6 attack on the Capitol, compared to 50% of those aged 65 and older. Interestingly, there are wide differences by age even among Democrats, with 50% of 18-to-39-year-old Democratic leaners saying Trump bears a great deal of responsibility for the attack, compared to 86% for Democratic leaners aged 50 or older.
These results suggest major challenges for American democracy in 2024.
“From a historical perspective, these results would be chilling to many analysts,”
These poll results have important consequences beyond the unity of the Democratic and Republican Party coalitions in a high stakes presidential election year. This poll followed up on a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll we conducted in late 2021 ahead of the 1st anniversary of the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol. In the two years since we did that poll, the January 6th commission and public investigations of former president Trump have revealed significant amounts of important evidence related to the events of January 6th, Trump’s role in the attack on the Capitol, and the integrity of the 2020 election results.
Nonetheless, across the board, our 2023 poll shows that many Americans have not been moved by this evidence.
Americans of all partisan identities are less likely in 2023 to believe President Biden was legitimately elected than they were in 2021.
Americans of all partisan identities are also less likely in 2023 to feel Donald Trump bears responsibility for the attack on the US Capitol than they were in 2021.
These results - and the consistent pattern of public opinion not being moved by new evidence about election administration and the actions of Donald Trump - have important implications for how Americans will respond to the results of the 2024 election. Unlike past presidential elections, we are beginning this presidential election year with a large number of Americans not feeling confident that either Donald Trump or President Biden will accept the results of the election if they lose.
At CDCE, we spent much of the last year thinking about how to support effective and inclusive government transitions at all levels of government. No matter who wins the 2024 presidential election, it is imperative for American democracy that we have an effective, inclusive, and peaceful transition period. The data in our new Washington Post-University of Maryland poll suggests that whoever wins the election will face significant headwinds during the transition period because many Americans will not trust the legitimacy of the result. I hope these results can spur leaders throughout civil society to think strategically and creatively about how they can act to strengthen democracy to meet the challenges posed by these unprecedented trends in public opinion.
Best,
Mike Hanmer
Director, UMD Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement.
